Impact – Forecasting Local Demographic Change

Q Step Academy

Local forecasts of demographic change are essential for the distribution of local resources or to inform decisions around local service provision. Yet such information is not produced as standard statistical output in the UK and methodology in this area is underdeveloped.

In this project funded by National Records of Scotland and the University of Manchester we contributed to the development of a new methodology for forecasting local demographic change and delivered associated training to a range of planners and policymakers.

Directly as a result of this project from 2020, the Improvement Service will now deliver a regular set of local projections for areas across Scotland. The local planners who attended our training have the skills to develop the projections according to local intelligence using the POPGROUP demographic software. More information on the project and its training materials.

Demography and POPGROUP training are part of our short course programme –


The Research Training Centre applies expertise in a diverse set of social science methods, through teaching and research. The Centre provides new insights to the key challenges in society.

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